The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FewsNet) has projected that people from 12 districts in the southern and central regions will be in critical food shortage between September 2025 and January 2026.
In a food security update issued yesterday, FewsNet projects that maize prices are expected to remain significantly above average through January 2026 at approximately 150 percent above the five-year average and 30 percent above the same time last year when a kilogramme of maize averaged K887.
The statement says the problems will be compounded by limited market access, driven by below-average household incomes and elevated food prices amid reduced market supply, especially for maize.
The districts are Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Chikwawa, Nsanje and Balaka in the South while in the Centre they include Lilongwe, Salima and Nkhotakota.
Reads the statement in part: “Maize prices are expected to continue rising through January 2026. Prices will most likely exceed those observed during the same period last year and above the five-year average, driven by below-average national maize production and increased market demand.
“Cross-border inflows of maize grain will remain strong, capping prices, especially during the lean season. Livestock prices are expected to be above average in most areas, consistent with general price increases.”
This year, the country will yield 2.8 million metric tonnes (MT) of maize against the yearly demand of 3.5 million MT, leaving a deficit of 700 000MT.
The statement further says informal cross-border maize imports, particularly from Mozambique and Zambia, are expected to remain above average as traders and households seek to offset the national maize deficit.
FewsNet has also warned against any devaluation of the local currency, saying, such a decision will exacerbate inflation, increasing food insecurity and further erode household purchasing power.
“Rising import costs—particularly for fuel and fertiliser—will increase production and transportation expenses, contributing to persistently high staple food prices,” reads the report.
Preparedness efforts
Department of Disaster Management Affairs (Dodma) spokesperson Chipiliro Khamula said they await the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (Mvac) report.
He said: “The Mvac report is not yet out because that is what informs the response plan as it includes the budget. For now, we are responding sporadically, where there is need.
“We also usually develop the Multi-hazard Contingency Plan, which is dependent on the rainfall forecast, which has also not been released yet.”
Minister of Agriculture Sam Kawale did not respond to our queries yesterday, but he earlier told The Nation that the government is investing heavily in irrigation farming, promoting crop diversification and providing resources for local procurement of maize to fill the food deficit.
Last week, National Food Reserve Agency said they have so far bought 37 578 MT of maize, of which 8 978MT has been sent to Dodma for emergencies while 1 376MT has gone to Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (Admarc) for price stabilisation.
To bridge a national deficit, NFRA chief executive officer (CEO) George Macheka said NFRA is importing maize from Tanzania at a cheaper price of K943 per kilogramme under a government-to-government deal, but stressed that supporting local farmers remains the priority.
In a separate statement, Admarc Limited CEO Dan Makata announced its plans to import about 200 000MT of maize.
“Admarc recognises that the recent increase in maize prices has placed a heavy burden on families, especially in rural and low-income urban areas and there is need to ensure sufficient supply of maize to avert the escalating price of maize,” he said.
